Abstract摘要
沃伦•巴菲特是世界各地成功的投资者,他的投资理论可以引领投资的成功。与美国和英国相比,中国股票市场绝对是一个新兴市场。投资者愿意在中国股票市场赚钱。因此,巴菲特理论是我国股票市场的一个很好的选择。因此,本文拟从收益和规避风险的角度出发,运用巴菲特的投资理论,探讨我国股票市场的适应性。显然,在理论的中心是不要鸡蛋放在同一篮子里,从长远来看,最大的利润是获得的。此外,从投资中选择10个潜在的投资股份,并随时间提升。因此,沃伦巴菲特理论可以应用于股票市场的长期投资和短期投资。
Warren Buffett is a successful investor around the world; his investment theory can be leading to the success in the investment. Chinese share market is absolutely an emerging market compared with the United States of America and United Kingdom. Investors are willing to earn the money in the Chinese share markets. Therefore, the theory of Warren Buffett is nice choice in the share markets in China. Therefore, this article would like to discuss the adoptability of the share market in China on the application of the Warren Buffett’s investment theory from the respective of the return and avoid the risks. Apparently, in the central of the theory is do not eggs in the same baskets, the maximum profits are gained in the long-term. Additionally, 10 potential investing shares are selected and elevated over the time from the investment. As a consequence, the theory of the Warren Buffett could be applied in the long term investment and short term investment in the share market.
Table of contents
Abstract 2
1.0 Introduction 4
2.0 Literature review 7
2.1 Share market in China 7
2.1.1 The current situation of share market in China 7
2.1.2 The history shortcut of the share market and the main trend of investment culture 9
2.1.3 The Structure of the investors 9
2.1.4 The culture difference between Chinese market and foreign markets 10
2.1.5 The legal environment of market 11
2.1.6 The distance to the global share market 13
2.2 Warren Buffett 14
2.2.1 Brief introduction of Warren Buffett 14
2.2.2 The foundation of Warren Buffett 15
2.2.3 The warren Buffett’s investment success theory 16
2.2.3.1 Invest in Candor 16
2.2.4 The Berkshire Hathaway 18
3.0 Methodology 20
3.1 The example of Warren Buffett’s investment in share market 20
3.1.1 Excellent examples of Warren Buffett’s investment 20
3.1.2 The investment on The Boston Globe, the Washington Post and Coca-Cola 21
3.1.3 Investment on share-term or long-term 24
4.0 Result 26
5.0 Discussion 29
6.0 Conclusions 36
References 37
1.0 Introduction介绍
中国政府在2015年6月底采取了一系列补救措施,试图阻止A股市场自今年年初以来的大幅下跌,这是多年来的萧条,A股市场为海外投资者提供了机遇和激动人心的时刻。机会在于过去8个月以来爆炸性增长的150%,在6月历史性下跌之前,中国大陆的散户投资者带领,在三周内产生了约30%的下降(Appell,2015年)。像过山车一样的涨跌使得神秘的中国股票市场更加难以捉摸。
With a series of patchwork that the Chinese government took in the late of June 2015 trying to stop the A-share market’s steeping fall since the early of this year from years of depression, the A-share market provides both opportunities and breathtaking moments to the oversea investors. The opportunities lie in the 150 percent of explosion rise since the last eight months, led by retail investors in Mainland China, before the historic fall in June, generated about 30 percent of drop in three weeks (APPELL, 2015). The roller coaster like rise and drop make the mysterious Chinese share market more elusive.
中国大陆有两个证券交易所。首先,上海市政府批准的证券市场成立于1990年11月26日,并于1990年12月19日以上海证券交易所(SHSE)的名义开始运作。此后不久,深圳证券交易所于1990年12月1日成立,1991年7月3日开始营业。许多大公司更喜欢在上海证券交易所上市,而中小企业则经常在中国深圳市场上市。图1显示了1997年至2010年上海证券交易所综合指数的近期趋势(Wan,2015年)。There are two stock exchanges in Mainland China. First, the market for securities approved by the Government in Shanghai was established in November 26, 1990, and began to operate on December 19, 1990 in the name of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). Soon after, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) was established in December 1, 1990, and began operating in July 3, 1991. Many large companies prefer to be listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange, while medium and small enterprises are often listed in Shenzhen in China market. Figure 1 shows the recent trends in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from 1997 to 2010 (Wan, 2015).
Figure 1: Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index from 1997 to 2010
There are two exchanges, A and B shares in two different markets in China. A share is for Chinese mainland companies, subscription, in the Chinese currency RMB (CNY) transactions. Stock exchanges in Mainland China, Chinese citizens and approved foreign investment purchase and sale of listed ordinary shares are issued under this section. B shares are issued by the Chinese Mainland enterprises to foreign currency transactions, stock exchange listing in Mainland China. B shares were par value of RMB-denominated. B-share market launched in 1992, it is limited to foreign investors until February 19, 2001, since it is open to Chinese investors. Microstructure of the two markets has changed in several aspects, such as daily price imposed / down limit rules since December 16, 1996. In the price limits of ± 10% of the common shares and special treatment (ST and ST *) shares ± 5%. Until December 16, 1996, there were different ranges of price limits or no price restriction period (Anderson, Jing, & Wang, 2015). In each trading day, trading period is pided into three parts: the opening call auction, cooling time, and continuous two-way auction. Market opens at 9:15 am, enters the opening call auction until 09:25, trading systems to accept orders submitted and canceled during this period, all matched transactions are followed in the implementation of the cooling time at 9:25. From 9:25 to 9:30, it is the cooling phase, communication is open order routing members, but does not accept canceled orders. Real-time execution is adapted to all matching orders. However, the information is not released to the trading terminal during cooling and the public at the end of the cooling period. Continuous double auction works from 9:30 to 11:30, 13:00 to 15:00 (for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 14:57- 15:00 for the duration of the closing auction, to form a closing price) and automatically trade matching due to price time priority, 11:30 am and 13:00 pm time interval between trade stagnation. Outside of these opening hours, the order is executed will be deleted by the system.
To issue two types of tradable shares is not strange for some companies in China, A shares for domestic investors, B shares to foreign investors, and trading in these stocks, two domestic stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen accordingly. The distribution of voting rights and claims A and B shares are the same, but they are different foreign currency denominated transactions. This segmentation mechanism allows international investors to directly invest in China's stock market, but also limits their influence on listed Chinese enterprises and domestic capital market. Since February 2001, the Chinese government began to allow domestic investors to invest in foreign currency B-share market (Leahy, 2004). As a result, the bid-ask spread of the B-share market dropped significantly, a sharp increase in trading volume. Part of this event provides a unique opportunity to examine changes in trade activities; bid-ask spread and spread to the A-share and B-share market as a reduced level of market segmentation results (Wang, 2014).
.................................
6.0 Conclusions
In short, the core of Warren Buffett's theory, not putting all their eggs in the same basket and preferred investment is long-term. In addition, the relationship theory is enhanced the relationship with the shareholder to help the confidence in the investment. Also, learn from him not only the successful in the share market, but also the personality from him. His success is not only built on his knowledge but also his team work.
In addition, China's stock market is highly developed, but not yet mature. The real watcher of the share market in China is government body China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and also regulation in Chinese share market is poor and ineffective. Furthermore, the trust could the biggest challenge in the investment.
Besides this, his preferred investment is gained in the long-term. Based on this theory, following ten shares could be selected to investment in the long-term.
Company Stock Code
Lenovo 00992
Petro China 601857
China Offshore Oil Engineering Corporation 600583
China Railway Construction Corporation 601186
Beijing Tongrentang Group 600085
Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co., Ltd 000792
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Ltd. 601318
Shenzhen Ping An Bank 000001
Bank of China 601988
Sany Group 600031
References
1. Alexander Jr., JC 2010, 'Berkshire Hathaway versus the S & P 500:1990-2009', Financial Services Review, 19, 4, pp. 295-306
2. Anderson, H, Jing, C, & Wang, Q 2015, 'IPO Performance on China's Newest Stock Market (ChiNext)',Chinese Economy, 48, 2, pp. 87-113
3. APPELL, D 2015, 'A-shares rescue tactics cast shadow', Pensions & Investments, 43, 15, pp. 2-33.
4. APPELL, D 2015, 'China A-shares upheaval brings openings, headaches', Pensions & Investments, 43, 14, pp. 2-33.
5. Barber, B, & Odean, T 2001, 'BOYS WILL BE BOYS: GENDER, OVERCONFIDENCE, AND COMMON STOCK INVESTMENT',Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 116, 1, pp. 261-292
6. BARTRAM, S, BROWN, G, & STULZ, R 2012, 'Why Are U.S. Stocks More Volatile?', Journal Of Finance, 67, 4, pp. 1329-1370
7. Berkshire Hathaway buys Duracell' 2014, TCE: The Chemical Engineer, 882, p. 7
8. Bloomquist, LG 1996, 'Learn from Warren Buffett's `way'', Research Technology Management, March, Business Source Premier, EBSCOhost, viewed 22 August 2015.
9. Bowen, R, Rajgopal, S, & Venkatachalam, M 2014, 'Is Warren Buffett's Commentary on Accounting, Governance, and Investing Practices Reflected in the Investment Decisions and Subsequent Influence of Berkshire Hathaway?', Accounting Review, 89, 5, pp. 1609-1644
10. BROWN, J, MARTINSSON, G, & PETERSEN, B 2013, 'Law, Stock Markets, and Innovation', Journal Of Finance, 68, 4, pp. 1517-1549
11. Chaudhry, M, Boldin, R, Affaneh, I, & Tickell, G 2015, 'pidend policy and earnings: a study of short- and long-term causality', Applied Economics, 47, 50, pp. 5445-5459
12. Cheffins, B, Bank, S, & Wells, H 2013, 'Questioning ‘law and finance’: US stock market development, 1930–70', Business History, 55, 4, pp. 598-616
13. Chen, Q, Giles, D, & Feng, H 2012, 'The extreme-value dependence between the Chinese and other international stock markets', Applied Financial Economics, 22, 14, pp. 1147-1160
14. Chen, T 2013, 'Do Investors Herd in Global Stock Markets?', Journal Of Behavioral Finance, 14, 3, pp. 230-239
15. Chen, X.J.; K.A. Kim; T. Yao; and T. Yu. 2010. “On the Predictability of Chinese Stock Return.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 18, no. 4: 403–425.
16. Chen, Z, & Cui, X 2012, 'Decomposing the Bid-Ask Spread in a Segmented Equity Market: Analyzing Chinese A Shares Versus B Shares', Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 48, 4, pp. 30-49
17. Copeland, L, & Biqiong, Z 2003, 'Volatility and Volume in Chinese Stock Markets', Journal Of Chinese Economic & Business Studies, 1, 3, p. 287
18. CORNELL, B 2010, 'Warren Buffett, Black-Scholes, and the Valuation of Long-Dated Options', Journal Of Portfolio Management, 36, 4, pp. 107-111
19. Estes, R, & Hosseini, J 1988, 'The Gender Gap on Wall Street: An Empirical Analysis of Confidence in Investment Decision Making',Journal Of Psychology, 122, 6, p. 577
20. Fan, F, Gao, J, & Liang, S 2015, 'Crisis-Like Behavior in China's Stock Market and Its Interpretation', Plos ONE, 10, 2, pp. 1-12
21. Finkle, TA 2010, 'WARREN E. BUFFETT AND BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, INC', Journal Of The International Academy For Case Studies, 16, 5, pp. 61-88
22. Foster, D, & Stine, R 2006, 'Being Warren Buffett: A Classroom Simulation of Risk and Wealth When Investing in the Stock Market. (English)', American Statistician, 60, 1, pp. 53-60
23. Gul, F.A.; J.B. Kim; and A.A. Qiu. 2010. “Ownership Concentration, Foreign Shareholding, Audit Quality, and Stock Price Synchronicity: Evidence from China.” Journal of Financial Economics 95, no. 3: 425–442.
24. Hussain, S, Korkeamäki, T, Xu, D, & Khan, A 2015, 'What Drives Stock Market Growth? A Case of a Volatile Emerging Economy', Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 51, 1, pp. 209-223
25. Lauterbach, B, & Pajuste, A 2015, 'The long-term valuation effects of voluntary dual class share unifications', Journal Of Corporate Finance, 31, pp. 171-185
26. Leahy, C 2004, 'China faces a stock market breakdown', Euromoney, 35, 428, pp. 92-99
27. Lee, C.F.; G.M. Chen; and O.M. Rui. 2001. “Stock Returns and Volatility on China’s Stock Markets.” Journal of Financial Research 24, no. 4: 523–543.
28. Leng, F, & Noronha, G 2013, 'Information and Long-Term Stock Performance Following Open-Market Share Repurchases', Financial Review, 48, 3, pp. 461-487
29. Li, Z, & Zhang, X 2014, 'Evaluating the Effectiveness and Efficiency of the Four-trillion Yuan Stimulus Package: Evidence from Stock Market Returns of Chinese Listed A Shares', Global Economic Review, 43, 4, pp. 381-407
30. LILIENFELD-TOAL, U, & RUENZI, S 2014, 'CEO Ownership, Stock Market Performance, and Managerial Discretion', Journal Of Finance, 69, 3, pp. 1013-1050
31. Lin, C, Fang, C, & Cheng, H 2014, 'The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Returns in China’s Stock Market',Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 50, 5, pp. 193-205
32. Lu, C, Wang, K, Chen, H, & Chong, J 2007, 'Integrating A- and B-Share Markets in China:: The Effects of Regulatory Policy Changes on Market Efficiency', Review Of Pacific Basin Financial Markets & Policies, 10, 3, pp. 309-328
33. Lv, X, Dong, W, & Fang, F 2015, 'The Asymmetric Effects of Official Interest Rate Changes on China’s Stock Market During Different Market Regimes', Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 51, 4, pp. 826-841
34. Morck, R.; B. Yeung; and W. Yu. 2000. “The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why Do Emerging Markets Have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?” Journal of Financial Economics 58, no. 1–2:215–260.
35. MURPHY, KLEIMAN,& NATHAN, K 1997, 'The value of convertible preferred stock in transactions with 'Relationship investors' like Warren Buffett', International Review Of Financial Analysis, 6, 3, p. 241
36. Nedeltcheva, GN 2015, 'Forecasting Stock Market Trends', Economic Quality Control, 30, 1, pp. 21-38
37. Rajhans, R, & Singh, M 2014, 'Short-Term Integration Dynamics of Developing and Developed Stock Markets: Evidence from India, China, US and European Markets', IUP Journal Of Applied Finance, 20, 3, pp. 53-61
38. Sharma, S, Narayan, P, & Thuraisamy, K 2015, 'Time-Varying Herding Behavior, Global Financial Crisis, and the Chinese Stock Market',Review Of Pacific Basin Financial Markets & Policies, 18, 2, p. -1
39. Su, N, & Lin, C 2012, 'The Impact of Open-Market Share Repurchases on Long-Term Stock Returns: Evidence from the Taiwanese Market',Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 48, pp. 200-229
40. Swanson, KC 2007, 'CHINA STOCK MARKETS', Institutional Investor, 41, 9, pp. 1-4
41. 'The Warren Buffett Way of Finding Excellent Firms at Attractive Prices' 2008, AAII Journal, 30, 8, pp. 4-8
42. Tunaru, R, Fabozzi, F, & Wu, T 2006, 'Chinese equity market and the efficient frontier', Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2, 2, pp. 87-94
43. Wan, Y, Xie, W, Gu, G, Jiang, Z, Chen, W, Xiong, X, Zhang, W, & Zhou, W 2015, 'Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets', Plos ONE, 10, 4, pp. 1-20
44. Wang, L 2014, 'Who moves East Asian stock markets? The role of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis', Journal Of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 28, pp. 182-203
45. Wu, L, Meng, Q, & Xu, K 2015, '‘Slow-burn’ spillover and ‘fast and furious’ contagion: a study of international stock markets', Quantitative Finance, 15, 6, pp. 933-958
46. Wylie, A 2014, 'How to Define Acronyms: Borrow Warren Buffett's 3-Step Process', Public Relations Tactics, 21, 5, p. 7
47. Yang, W, & Chen, Y 2015, 'The Response of Dynamic Herd Behavior to Domestic and U.S. Market Factors: Evidence from the Greater China Stock Markets', Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 51, pp. S18-S4
48. Yang, L, & Hamori, S 2013, 'Dependence structure among international stock markets: a GARCH–copula analysis', Applied Financial Economics, 23, 23, pp. 1805-1817
49. Zhang, J, Wang, H, Wang, L, & Liu, S 2014, 'Is There Any Overtrading in Stock Markets? The Moderating Role of Big Five Personality Traits and Gender in a Unilateral Trend Stock Market', Plos ONE, 9, 1, pp. 1-10