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CHAPITER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1Research background
The countries with similar geographic proximity, political system and economic development level establishregional integration organization, which helps to attract foreign investment, eliminates trade barriers, forms large-scale market and promotes enterprises to improve technology. Therefore, more and more countries and regions tendto establish a free trade zone even more integrated customs union, accelerate the reduction of tariff and market accessconditions, to achieve regional trade and investment liberalization. As a regional economic integration organization,Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan custom union has obvious advantages over other integration organizations except theEuropean Union. These advantages are mainly reflected in the perfection of the system. The customs union committeeis a supranational institution regulating the foreign trade activities by the Belarus, Belarus and Kazakhstan customsunion. The customs union committee has played an important role in the implementation of uniform tariff, preferentialtariff policy, tariff quota, non-tariff regulation and control. The perfect laws and regulations are also the guarantee ofthe success of Russia Belarus Kazakhstan customs union. The customs union codes set up a more transparent and freeregulation offoreigntradeactivities, which isverybeneficialfor enterprisesin variouscountries. Accordingtoexperts’estimation, as before 2015, the customs union will create 400 billion dollar economic effect for Russia, bringingeconomic effect of 16 billion dollars for white Kazakhstan. After the establishment of the Russia Belarus Kazakhstancustoms union, it formed a huge market with a population of 170 million. This has a huge appeal for foreign investors.It is of theoretical and practical significance to study Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan customs union from theperspective of economic effects of trade. This is a further enrichment and supplement to the study of the economicand trade relations between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. As an important trading partner of Russia, Belarus andKazakhstan, China will naturally pay close attention to the trend of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan customs union.This paper provides a new perspective for the decision makers of the Ministry of Commerce and other relevantdepartments to predict the prospects of economic and trade relations between China and Russia and Kazakhstan, andprovides a new perspective for the development of a more comprehensive policy.
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1.2 Concept and characteristics of Customs Union
unionSince the second half of the century, regional economic integration has become a major trend in internationaleconomic life. Both developed and developing countries are eager. From the concept point of view, regional economicintegration is geographically adjacent or similar to two or more countries or regions, based on certain common interests,through consultation and cooperation to develop economic and trade policies, the conclusion of economic treaties oragreements, as a result of economic integration into a regional economic and trade complex of the process. Thecustoms union is one of the most important forms of economic integration. It means that two or more countries havesigned an agreement to remove trade barriers, reduce or cancel tariffs in mutual trade. Imports of goods to non-membercountries are subject to a common tariff rate and trade policy, with a certain exclusion. For example, the customs unionaims to reduce or eliminate the tariffs between the allies. So the customs union provides that within a certain periodof time the member states need to adjust their current tariff rates, the transition to a unified tariff rate the customs union provided, the final cancellation Tariffs between member states to achieve free trade. In view of foreign countries,Customs Union countries need to formulate a unified trade policy and tariff rate for non-member countries, and at thesame time need to unify trade protective measures, such as import quotas and health and epidemic preventionindicators. Under normal circumstances, the success of the customs union (such as the European Union) have thefollowing characteristics: (1) the level of economic development of member countries is not big: This will not be theburden of other members of the country because of the backwardness of a member country's economy, The league canrun smoothly on the basis of it. At the same time, the level of economic development means that consumption levelsare similar, and trade is more likely to occur within the customs union. (2) Complementarity of economies in membercountries: economic complementarity means that the alliance has less conflict and increased demand in thecompetitive advantage, which will help strengthen the cooperation of the allies and promote the improvement of theoverall welfare within the customs union. (3) Political mutual trust in member states: political mutual trust foreconomic cooperation to clear the obstacles, the communication between countries more open and clear, to someextent to ensure the sustainability of the customs union operation.
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CHAPITER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Overview of regional economic integration and customs union theory
The establishment of Customs Union will inevitably bring about the trade creation effect. The effect refers to thebenefit when the country produces the goods from higher-cost trade countries to lower-cost trade countries. As far asthe Customs Union whose member states are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, the effect willappear when the members’ trade structure is not consistent with their level of the economy. We analyze the tradecreation effect by the difference of trade structure leading to the change of trade direction from these countries.In this study, we analyze the trade creation effect by analyzing the trade structure coming from the three countrieswhich are Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Before the establishment of the Customs Union, the three countries' tradestructure mainly expressed as follows:The trade and trade structure among the member states can be seen from the above table before the establishmentof the customs union. In the member states, the Russia has the larger economic scale and the more developed economiclevel than Belarus and Kazakhstan. And Russia’s main tradeproducts of export have fuel, ore, chemical products andso on, on which the fuel accounts for a larger proportion. The main export products in Kazakhstan include fuel, oreand other industrial products. The main imported products are mechanical transportation equipment, other industrialproducts. The main export products in Belarus are fuel, mechanical transportation equipment, other manufacturedgoods and food. The main imported products are fuel, machinery and transport equipment, other manufactured goodsand chemical products.
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2.2 Empirical Literature
Regional economics was formed in 1950s. In 1954, Ding Bogen, the economist of Holland, first proposed thedefinition of economic integration. Holland believes that economic integration is to eliminate human factors thatimpede the most effective economic movement. The most appropriate international economic structure is createdthrough mutual cooperation and unification. The international regional economic integration mainly has the followingachievements.In 1950, American economist Jacob Wiener put forward the theory of Customs Union in his representative workthe theory of customs union. Wiener first pointed out the uncertainty of the early customs union theory, and pidedthe effect of regional economic integration into "trade creation" and "trade transfer". He thinks that whether thecustoms union benefits or not depends on the final result of the two parties, so the quantitative analysis is applied tothe study of the economic effect of the customs union, which lays a solid foundation for the theory of the customsunion. The core of the tariff union theory is to reveal the different economic effects of the Customs Union on theMember States and non-member countries, namely the static effect and the dynamic effect. The former refers to thetrade creation effect and trade transfer effect and the latter mainly refers to economies of scale effect, investment effectand technological progress effect.
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CHAPITER THREE: Introduction to the trade situation of the five countries.......... 13
3.1 Introduction to the five countries........ 13
3.2 Trade status of the Customs union ...... 15
3.2.1 Trade structure analysis ........... 15
3.2.2 Mutual trade within the Customs union ..... 18
CHAPITER FOUR: Static and dynamic economic effects of Customs Union ......... 23
4.1 Comparative advantage index analysis of the static economic effect.......... 23
4.1.1 Relationship between comparative advantage and static economic effect.......... 23
4.1.2 The calculation and analysis of the comparative advantage index ............ 23
44.2 Empirical research based on Gravity Model.......... 26
4.3 Analysis of the dynamic economic effects of Customs Union........... 33
4.3.1 Attracting foreign investment ........... 33
4.3.2 Technology innovation ............ 33
4.3.3 Comprehensive competitiveness....... 35
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 37
5.1 Conclusions..... 37
CHAPITER FOUR: Static and dynamic economic effects of Customs Union
4.1 Comparative advantage index analysis of the static economic effect
Among them, i represents products, j represents the country, and RCAij represents the comparative advantagesof the I products of J countries. Xij is the export volume of I products of j countries, and Xj is the total export volumeof j countries. Xi represents exports of the world's first I products, and Xw represents total exports of all products inthe world. ID is the degree of international pision of labor. The result of RCA multiplied by ID is the ratio of theexport of a certain product to that of the world's first i product.Static economic effects mainly include trade creation effect and trade transfer effect. The reason for the tradecreation effect is that the high cost products originally produced at home can be replaced by relatively low costproducts produced by the customs union when the tariff is cancelled. Generally speaking, high cost products will notbe a product of comparative advantage in the country. The trade shift effect is because a country imports low-costproducts from its allies and imports high cost products from its allies. In other words, the trade persion effect is dueto the fact that a country imports from the non-allied countries the products of the comparative advantage of theAfrican Union and imports the products from the Allies without the comparative advantage. Therefore, the staticeconomic effect of customs union can be analyzed from comparative advantage.
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Conclusions
In this paper, firstly, the history of CIS integration is reviewed, and the operation mechanism of the five countriescustoms union is introduced. Secondly, the paper analyzes the trade situation of Customs Union in five countries.Thirdly, the paper calculates the economic indexes of five countries custom union by using the formula, and analyzesthe foreign investment flows of the customs union, the industries of foreign investment and the sources of foreigncapital. The paper analyzes and discusses the dynamic economic effects of the five countries' trade status and trade inthe framework of the customs union. This is beneficial to understand the practical significance of strengtheningeconomic ties between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan from the perspective of regional integration. Through theanalysis of the above chapters, we can draw the following conclusions:Firstly, due to the economic gap between Belarus and Kazakhstan and Russia, Russia is in the leading positionin the customs union, which leads to the low proportion of the trade volume between China World Trade Center andKazakhstan. In the short term, the economy of Belarus, Kazakhstan and other countries is growing rapidly with Russia,which may lead to serious consequences in the long run. If Russia's economy is in turmoil, white and Kazakhstan willbe implicated.Secondly, after the establishment of the Russia Belarus Kazakhstan customs union, foreign investment in membercountries has increased significantly. Customs union trade has produced some dynamic economic effects. But thereare some problems in the investment industry. Foreign investment in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan is mainlyconcentrated in the mining and processing industry wholesale and retail trade. To some extent, foreign investment ismainly used for natural resources development, which has little effect on promoting local employment and technologyspillover. Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan should cultivate more sunrise industry in innovation stage, and pay attentionto protect the ecological environment. It is necessary to encourage enterprises to abide by the laws of the host country,respect the local culture, and encourage long-term cooperation conducive to the sustainable development of the localeconomy and society.
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References (abbreviated)