本研究考察了30年来香蕉和可可出口对厄瓜多尔农业经济增长的影响，并实施了新古典主义生产函数。向量自回归模型（VAR）、约翰森协整和误差修正建模方法。研究表明，农业出口影响厄瓜多尔农业部门的经济增长；它指的是，随着农业出口的增加，经济增长率上升。此外，研究还发现，香蕉和可可出口对经济增长具有重大和积极的影响。因此，描述性分析表明，厄瓜多尔的农业出口趋势呈现出增长模式，但随着时间的推移有所下降。还可以评估重要方面，如香蕉部门仍然是该国出口的领导者，占非石油出口的27%，产量相当大。
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background of the study
Ecuador has demonstrated the importance of the agricultural sector in the national economy and has been closely associated with periods of boom and crisis of its exports. The introduction in the international market started in 1880 with the cocoa boom, in which a 2.5 percent growth in GDP was achieved (World Trade Organization, 2014). For the last 16 years, the agricultural sector has grown irregularly at an average annual rate of 4.0 %. In the period 2000–2006, the average share of agricultural GDP was 8.6 percent, compared with 8.3 percent in 2007–2016. This decrease results from deficient public policy, private and foreign investment, modernization of farming, low productivity levels in agriculture. From 2003 to 2005, interannual growth was 5%, due to growth in commodity prices on the world market, investment, and consumption. Between 2006 and 2008, the growth of agricultural GDP shrank from 4 to 1 % (Banco Central del Ecuador, 2016).
Exports of agricultural products have contributed on average with 30.6% of total exports in the period 2000-2006 with 29.7% in the 2007-2016 period. Agricultural exports have a lower level of stability than total exports; in 2014-2015, the increase was only 0.6%. The outlook was similar in 2016; it had a growth of 0.6% of the FOB value since the percentage of exportable tonnes fell by 2.7%. Total exports for the years 2015 and 2016 decreased by 16.320 million dollars, compared to the value of exports in 2014. In the same period, agricultural exports also decreased by USD 1.026 million (PROECUADOR, 2016).
Banana and cocoa exports have generated very significant income for the country's economy; however, the international trade of this product is faced with current regulations that affect the development of the activity. These two products of agricultural activity generate direct employment are approximately 100,000 producers. This chain occupies a preferred position in Ecuador's economic context, as food and beverage manufacturing is a crucial activity in the national industry (PROECUADOR, 2016). The Ecuadorian banana is recognized worldwide for its quality; banana exports are the second largest income for the country.
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1.2 Problem statement
The impact of agricultural trade on economic growth has been a severe problem in the controversy over the analysis of international trade and development policies. Ecuador's agricultural exports sector mainly depended on agricultural products such as cocoa and banana. This productive sector had experimented with cycles of prosperity and periods of crisis derived from the low level of production and demand for the product.
For these reasons, products in markets are non-stable in terms of volume and price, with high risk and uncertainty. These features do not contribute to the hypothesis of agricultural exports leading to the country's economic growth. The exports of primary goods compared with manufactured goods are less competitive on the world market. However, despite these unfavorable terms, the country's economy relies on agricultural exports, but its impact has not been evaluated. This study will deepen the knowledge related to cocoa and banana exports and lead to a better understanding of their economic impact. Given the agricultural sector's importance with the results of this study, it should be emphasized that developing countries are the ones that benefited. For the products being the object of this study, agricultural trade reforms can be proposed, and export-enhancing strategies can be developed to find agricultural and economic development that can generate more income to benefit the state and the citizens.
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Chapter 2 Literature Review
2.1 Exports led growth overview
Economic growth is one of the indicators that require careful attention within the study of the economy since it can improve the population welfare. Exports encourage growth worldwide and contribute to the economy of developed and developing countries. The second country category should be emphasized because they are the most benefited by the exports of their products, exported mainly to countries with an industrial capacity to process these products; these countries are also referred to as countries of primary economies or specialized in the primary export. Scholars had recently paid attention to general phenomena that no real attention was given to exports-led growth (ELG).
There is a long-standing discussion in both developed and developing economies about the relationship between export and economic growth. According to the investigations of (Chenery and Strout, 1966, Michaely, 1977, Balassa, 1978, Tyler, 1981, Kavoussi, 1984, Shirazi and Manap, 2005, Kang, 2015), the hypothesis of export-led growth (ELG) is corroborated especially in developing countries. The Keynesian basis indicates the effect of the foreign trade multiplier on the increase in short-term exports.
The country can improve the use of international pision labor by obtaining desired goods from abroad with considerable savings in inputs of productive factors and allowing efficient management of productive sectors at the international level due to export earnings promote the country's ability to import technologically capital goods. The development of exports also tends to concentrate investment in the most efficient sectors of the economy, as Keesing (1967) and Feder (1983) stated in their researches. In addition, Krishna, Mansfield et al. (2012) considered a critical factor in increasing production and employment, and exports are also considered a key component of economic growth.
Figure 2-1 Conceptual framework
2.2 Ecuadorian banana exports overview
During the last four decades, Ecuador's economic history has shown a clear comparative advantage in banana production. Banana production is one of the most efficient productive activities since it contributes directly to creating jobs and foreign exchange. The average annual production of 92 million tons depends primarily on two main aspects, natural resources and labor force; fortunately, both aspects of Ecuador are plentiful. This performance allows the domestic market to be supplied and marketed to countries in the rest of the world where there is an opportunity for demand for this fruit. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2007), Ecuador covers more than a third of the world's banana exports, selling between 80 and 85 million boxes, almost 40 percent of its total production.
Orozco (2017) argued the banana boom was a period of tremendous export growth that resulted in prolonged sustained growth due to the tremendous commercial demand of the United States and Europe because the countries of Central America were experiencing an unfavorable climatic situation that is why it has become the world's largest banana exporter. Therefore, the GDP assessed at constant prices between 1948 and 1954 rose by 5.6 percent annually, between 1954 and 1965 by 4.8 percent, and between 1965 and 1970 by 5.2 percent.
Fierro and Villacres (2014) concluded that the consolidation of Ecuador as one of the significant banana exporters on the world market in 1952 was made possible by the country's comparative costs remaining favorable to other suppliers the convergence of traditional socio-economic and ecological factors. Even though only three exporters controlled 80 percent of national production, this has given way to its extensive export expansion. Del Cioppo and Salazar (2015) summarized the Ecuadorian Banana production and exportation history, on his study mentioned the first "Boom" Banana Period comprised between 1948–1965 and a Second "Boom" Banana Stage highlighted by the increase in banana exports and production during the years 1985 and 1991. On these stages, the export trend was ascending and stable experiencing a cycle defined by non-capitalist forms of production that prevailed in the agricultural sector. Around 1954 the participation in the American market was 50 to 80 percent; for the year 1964, Ecuador exceeded the customs Exporters covering 25% of the international supply.
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Chapter 3 Agricultural Economic Growth & Agricultural Trade In Ecuador ...................... 16
3.1 Agriculture in Ecuador ........................................... 16
3.1.1 Banana crops ................................. 17
3.1.2 Cocoa crops .............................. 19
Chapter 4 Research Methodology .................................... 34
4.1 Scope and limitation of the study .................... 34
4.2 Research target ........................................... 34
Chapter 5 Impact Analysis Of Agricultural Export On Agricultural Economic Growth In Ecuador ......................... 42
5.1 Descriptive analysis ................................. 42
5.2 Econometric analysis .............................. 43
Chapter 5 Impact Analysis Of Agricultural Export On Agricultural Economic Growth In Ecuador
5.1 Descriptive analysis
Before providing a concise econometric analysis, it is essential to provide a straightforward interpretation of the statistical analysis. The table results reflect the descriptive statistics and interpret that the average at market prices of AGDP is 5,238,226 miles USD, the average of Agricultural capital formation is 179,659 miles USD. The mean value of the agricultural labor force 29.61 thousand people with a standard deviation of 0.351. The average banana export is 1,326,952 with a standard deviation of 143,353. During the period 1987-2000, bananas have been exported below their mean value. But there is a drastic increase over its mean value after this period rising to 2,084,750.
The average of cocoa exports is 222,608 miles USD with a standard deviation of 3,426. From 1987 to 2008, cocoa has been exported in Ecuador below its average export. Skewness is a measure of departure from symmetry; in this study, only the variable ALF is negatively skewed, while the rest of the variables are positively skewed or rightward skewed.
Table 5-1 Descriptive statistics
Chapter 6 Conclusion & Recommendations
6.1 Conclusion
Agricultural economic growth has saved the rural sector's productivity and added a considerable amount of profits. Agricultural policies have provided assistance, but they have not resulted in completely positive improvements. However, policymakers must determine the effectiveness and impact of agricultural value chain financing on economic development. Ecuador's agricultural exports have remained positive, but at a lower grade than the country's overall exports. This research examines the effects of banana and cocoa exports on the agricultural economic growth in Ecuador over 30 years, and an augmented neoclassical production function was implemented. Vector autoregressive model (VAR), Johansen Cointegration and Error Correction modeling approach.
The study suggests that agricultural exports impact economic growth in the agricultural sector in Ecuador; it refers that economic growth rises with increasing agricultural exports. In addition, it is found that banana and cocoa exports have a significant and positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the descriptive analysis has shown agricultural export trends in Ecuador present increasing patterns with some declines over time. It was also possible to evaluate essential aspects such as the banana sector remains the leader in the country's exports, accounting for 27% of non-oil exports, covering a significant quantity of hectares in output.
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