本文研究的灰色通关现象就是其中之一。毫无疑问，新的海关政策对中国鞋企对俄出口产生了积极影响，但我们也不能说两国贸易中不再存在灰色通关现象。因此，有必要加快两国经贸合作。通过正常通关促进中国鞋类企业对俄罗斯市场的出口，本研究选取中国对各国鞋类出口的统计数据，筛选出1995-2014年中国对俄鞋类出口总量，然后利用贸易引力模型（TGM）建立了差中差回归模型（DID），能够更准确地反映俄罗斯新关税政策实施对我国出口的影响。
1 Introduction
1.1 Research background and significance
1.1.1 Research background
In today's world China and Russia is the two most big and powerful countries, theyboundary line is 4300 kilometers, and its bilateral economic complementarity is strong. Inrecent years, the stability of strategic partner relations between the two countries is friendly,countries signing bilateral trade’s contracts every year, what give them a business relation growsteadily. Now, Russia has become China's eighth largest trading partner and in Europe thesecond largest partner. Instead of this China has become the Russia's largest trading partner inthe World. Current, the China-Russian economic and trade cooperation became stronger everyyear, and bilateral strategic partnership development already exists.
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia in the middleof the last century, China and Russia have maintained a good and bad state in terms of trade.For China, trade friendly relations with Russia are of great help to China's political andeconomic development. Russia is a resource-rich country with abundant natural resources,especially industrial raw materials such as oil and natural gas. These are precisely what Chinaneeds for development. China, by contrast, is strong with its various industries, retail, mining,steelmaking, automobiles, and especially light industries. The production of footwear, textiles,paper, leather, fur, knitwear and other products of which the Russian economy is experiencingan acute shortage, imported mostly from China. However, Russia has always had someprecautions in its trade with China. Setting up of trade barriers, non-tariff barriers mostly, whichimpedes trade between China and Russia, which has a very adverse effect on the developmentof China-Russian relations. Based on this background, China should summarize the impact ofRussian non-tariff trade barriers on its export to Russia and on China-Russian trade, analyze itsown specific situation, and find ways to eliminate this kind of trade barriers with Russia in orderto obtain better trade friendly exchanges. Russia's trade barriers are generally two types of tariffbarriers and non-tariff barriers and Russia treats every country with different types of tradebarriers. For China-Russia trade, Russia generally adopts more non-tariff barriers, a wider rangeof use, and a dominant technology Barrier Exchange. Russian tariff and non-tariff trade barriershave a great impact on the relations between China and Russia. In order to make the two countrymore friendly and help each other develop, China and Russia should increase communication,trust each other, work together to eliminate these barriers, and develop rapidly together.
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1.2 Research methodology and content of the research
1.2.1 Research methodology
Research methods can be pided into:
Qualitative analysis method: qualitative analysis is a scientific method of observation togather non-numerical data, while focusing on meaning-making. Through the analysis andsynthesis of real process we will dismemberment of phenomenon of the “gray customsclearance” considering current economic situation, into components and studying each of thesecomponents separately.
Comparative analysis method: item-by-item comparison of measures implemented byRussian government to weakening the “gray customs clearance” phenomenon influence onChina’s export to Russia.
Quantitative analysis methods, like:
The data collection, systematization and analysis of data, identification and justificationof economic laws applied in process and after “gray customs clearance” phenomenonoccurrence. The analysis of statistical data allows identifying changes, trends and can help tomake predictions for China-Russians trade relations. The processed data is represented invarious forms, such as graphs, charts, diagrams. The analysis is based on original numbers ofChina, Russian and international statistics and critical literature written by China, Russian andforeign scientists.
Empirical methods: empirical methods in economics includes comparison and experiment.Experiment in our case passive, as we compare various data, helping in international trade study,without involvement to the real process. Also use the Difference-in-Difference estimationmethod in Trade Gravity Model.
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2 Literature review
2.1 Definition of Trade Barriers
2.1.1 Trade barriers concept
Trade barriers, or trade barriers, mainly refer to artificially set restrictions on the exchangeof goods and services between countries, that is, various restrictions imposed by a country onthe import of foreign goods and services. There are two main types of tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers. If the acts that hinder normal trade are conducted, and the role of the naturalmarket competition mechanism is disturbed by artificial measures, we will summarize theminto the scope of trade barriers. For example, import duties or other equivalent taxes; restrictionson the quantity of imported goods in circulation; various discriminatory measures betweenproducers, buyers and users (especially restrictions on prices, trading conditions and shippingcosts); Various state subsidies or imposed special name burdens; and various restrictivepractices adopted to pide the scope of operations and seek excess profits. The tariffliberalization, commercial trade liberalization, and labor trade barriers advocated by theGeneral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), although progress has been made in termsof tariffs, are currently stagnating in other areas. In the present form, some types of trade barriershave disappeared, but other types of trade barriers are constantly emerging, and various newtrade barriers are emerging.
In the study of the concept of trade barriers, almost all economists and scholars in relateddisciplines have studied it. Peter M. Smith (2015)[1]mentioned in his article that the integrationof goods and services nowadays makes the trade barriers show different characteristics thanbefore. In their article, Timothy M. Pererson and Cameron G. Thies (2014)[2]demonstrated therelationship between the elasticity of import demand for commodities and the barriers to importtrade in agricultural products. Robert E. Baldwin (1970)[3]mentioned that if non-tariff measuresadopted by a country or region for imports and exports have a certain impact on global outputor total welfare, then we can it is believed that this country has imposed trade barriers only onthe trade of a certain product. Then if we use this concept as a benchmark, technical barrierscan be regarded as an important part of non-tariff barriers. Another scholar Donna Roberts(1999)[4]pointed out in the article that starting from the concept of a country’s externality,technical trade barriers are defined as strict regulations and requirements for various productsimported from abroad, and that countries implement the essence is to effectively solve a seriesof problems related to market failure in the country.
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2.2 Research on Non-tariff barriers
2.2.1 Measurement of non-tariff barriers
There are many types of non-tariff barriers, and their measurement methods are also verydifferent. For example, the prohibition of imports, quotas, and technical barriers affect thequantity of imports, but anti-dumping has both quantitative and price effects. It may also affectthe quantity and welfare of imports through changes in import prices. Alan V. Deardorff, RobertM. Stern (1997)[45]thought that tariff barriers have been substantially reduced, there has beenincreasing interest in the ways that non-tariff barriers (NTBs) may distort and restrictinternational trade. This paper assesses currently available methods for quantifying NTBs.Calculation of the tariff equivalent of a given NTB for a given economic indicator is complexand requires a great deal of information. Measures that are equivalent for one indicator will notbe so for others, and there is no substitute for NTB-specific expertise. Diego Vega (2006)[46]pides the measurement of non-tariff barriers into price-influenced, quantity-influenced, andwelfare-influenced methods. The calculation of price-influenced and quantity-influenced non-tariff barriers can be said to be the most complete method of measurement. Due to differentresearch objects and perspectives, price-influencing non-tariff barrier measurement algorithmscan be pided into tariff equivalent method, subsidy equivalent method and effective protectionrate measurement algorithm. Welfare-influenced non-tariff barrier measurement methodsinclude computable general equilibrium analysis methods, trade restriction index measurementalgorithms, and gravity models. Based on the concept of barrier coefficient, Jiang (2009)[47]proposed a calculation method for double non-tariff trade barriers that comprehensivelymeasures technical trade barrier indicators (TBT) and animal and plant health and quarantinemeasures (SPS) for different export industries.
Table 3.1 China Foreign Trade Overall (in US$ billions)
3 "Gray customs clearance" and China-Russian trade development ............................ 23
3.1 Concept of Gray customs clearance .................. 23
3.2 The development and historical stage in China-Russian trade relations......... 24
4 Empirical Analysis .................................... 38
4.1 Data description.............................. 38
4.1.1 Data processing and variable description....................... 38
4.1.2 Descriptive statistics................................ 39
5 Conclusion and policy recommendations ........................... 57
The Research prospects............................... 58
4 Empirical Analysis
4.1 Data description
4.1.1 Data processing and variable description
The sample data used in this study mainly comes from several sources: first is UnitedNations Commodity Trade Statistics Database; Second is World Integrated Trade SolutionDatabase; Third is CEPII statistical databases; Fourth is World Bank Database and the last oneis World Trade Organization Database, to study the changes in trade flows of Chinese footwearproducts exported to other countries.
The United Nations Commodity data is linked with the World Integrated Trade Solutiondata and we specified the empirical samples of the import and export quantity/volume offootwear products reported by each country as an exporting country and an importing countryby the 2002 edition of "Commodity Name and Coding" Trade data under the HarmonizedCommodity Description and Coding System (HS) standard - HS6 code, and samples spans from1995 to 2014 year with records of the trade information of footwear products exported fromChina to each country.
Table 4.1 Variables description and data sources
5 Conclusion and policy recommendations
For a long time, trade barriers are an urgent problem in international trade, and there is alot of research in this area, but if you pay attention to the field of studies of non-tariff tradebarriers, you can see their deficiency, especially studies of non-tariff trade barriers existingbetween China and Russia. One of such barriers is the phenomenon of gray customs clearancethat was studied in this paper. There is no doubt that the new customs policy has a positiveeffect on the export of Chinese shoe enterprises to Russia, but we also cannot say that the graycustoms clearance phenomenon is no more present in trade between two countries. Therefore,it is necessary to speed up trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. Promotethe export of Chinese footwear enterprises to the Russian market by normal customs clearance.
In this study we selects statistical data of China’s footwear exports to each country, toscreen out all China’s footwear exports to Russia by period of 1995-2014, and then we used theTrade Gravity Model (TGM) to build the Difference in Difference Regression Model (DID), soit can more accurately reflect the impact of Russia's new customs policy implementationaccorded to “gray customs clearance” phenomenon on China’s exports.
This study shows that the new customs policy of Russia implemented in 2004, had a verypositive effect on the growth of official export of Chinese footwear products to Russia. Fromthe perspective of the overall trade data, the growth rate of total trade volume and trade volumefrom 2004 to 2014 was much higher than that before 2004, which to some extent representedthe improvement of Russia's customs laws and created a gradually improved economicenvironment for China-Russia trade.
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