一带一路中巴经济走廊下外国直接投资对巴基斯塔基础设施建设影响之国际贸易研究

本文是一篇研究国际贸易论文，本研究用两个不同的因变量进行了实证研究。在第一个模型中，FDI 流入被视为因变量，国际收支平衡表(BOP)作为强制贸易壁垒（TB）和投资者保护强度（IP）作为独立变量。在第二个模型中，外国直接投资占 GDP 的比例为因变量，自变量与上述相同。

1 Introduction:

1.1In comparison with many international transactions, especially trading activities in theworld.
FDI activities have been among the fastest growing transactions between countries. In thisregard, in the late 1980s and the 1990s, the costs and benefits of the FDI inflow were discussedfor each region in the world. The benefit opinion believes that FDI can create a better economicenvironment while the cost opinion thinks that it makes some deteriorations of the balance ofpayments and decreases competition in national markets. According to many empirical studies,FDI provides generally an important source of capital, new job opportunities, technology transferand thus economic growth. Therefore, policymakers in developing countries have preferred FDIto attract more foreign inflows. For this reason, countries have applied free market policies toFDI, such as lower barriers, tax incentives and subsidies because they believe that FDI increaseseconomic growth. For example, most empirical studies linking the relationship FDI to economicgrowth have been in the literature. Additionally, another question is whether the rapiddevelopment of infrastructure in the different areas might be attractive on FDI inflows becausecountries in which has stronger infrastructure development gives competitiveness on them. Inthis study, I will discuss how CPEC infrastructure projects attract FDI in Pakistan.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – the biggest venture in the history ofbilateral economic cooperation of Pakistan-China even the rest of other countries, with a $45-$46billion investment in infrastructure developments and energy projects which are currently beingconstructed across the Pakistan. CPEC is considered as a “game changer” of Pakistan economyas well as – the China s largest foreign investment in his history. Under the China s initiative ofOne Belt One Road, the CPEC will connect port of Gwadar (Quetta) in Pakistan with Kashgar(Xinjiang) in Western China on the Arabian Sea, serving as a main gateway to the Central Asia,Africa, and Middle East. In addition, the CPEC will help to boost Pakistan s economy and tofulfill China s energy needs and development of its western region. The CPEC could bringeconomic opportunities of Pakistan and trade integration between Pakistan and rest of Asia aswell as Europe and Africa. CPEC is large scale project.
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1.2 Study Objective:
However, the CPEC clutches promising opportunities for Pakistan s economic growthand attracting Foreign Trade Investment. China is investing a huge amount to build infrastructurein Pakistan like railways projects, air transport, ports, and highways. So, what will be the impactof China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on the patterns of FDI in Pakistan economy aswell as what will be the impact of infrastructure development on FDI and the relationship withCPEC.
Strategically and economically, CPEC is very important for both countries. It will helpthe China to access the Middle East and Africa from Gwadar Port, enabling China to access theIndian Ocean and CPEC projects will support Pakistan to overcome the current and latter senergy crises and stabilizing its uncertain economy. Furthermore, the CPEC could serve as thedriver for trade and economic integration between China, Pakistan, Iran, India, Afghanistan andthe Central Asian, under the CPEC projects $10 billion will be spent on infrastructuredevelopment in Pakistan to enhance roads, railway lines and pipelines to overcome energy crisisand could transport trade goods from Pakistan to China, Middle East and cross the regional statesand around the world though see. At this early stage CPEC seems like to be a bilateral initiativebetween China and Pakistan, however in the long run aspects it may become multilateral projectamong different countries.
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2 Literature Review:

2.1 Literature on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has often been claimed to be a major stimulus toeconomic growth in developing countries. It s perceived ability to deal with major obstacles suchas shortages of financial resources, technology, and skills has attracted the attention of policymakers in developing countries, especially for Pakistan. Research on the determinants of FDI hasso far focused mainly on classical factors such as comparative labor costs, size of country,economic openness, nature of exchange rate regime, return on investment and political factors.More importantly, few scholars have actually acknowledged the important role of infrastructurein stimulating FDI, and proponents among whom feature (Estache and Fay 1997), (Loree andGuisinger 1995), (Richaud, Sekkat et al. 1999)and (Asiedu 2006). These authors have arguedthat good infrastructure is a necessary condition for foreign investors to operate successfully.Poor infrastructure or unavailable public inputs increase costs for firms. Thus, to the extent thatthe public input is non-excludable and non-congestible, it will lower the costs of business forprofit-maximising multinational and indigenous firms alike.
Infrastructure should thus improve the investment climate for FDI by subsidising the costof total investment by foreign investors and thus raising the rate of return. (Estache and Fay1997)and Wei et al. (2000) recently stressed the view that relative infrastructure endowmentswill thus affect a region s comparative advantage, hence its development. (Hallberg and Jammi2004) in their World Bank Investment Climate Activities argued that the quality of theinvestment climate is determined by the risks and transaction costs of investing in and operatinga business, and infrastructure services has been reported to be an important ingredient in thatrespect. As such, (Unctad 2005) and (Khadaroo and Seetanah 2009) also validated theimportant role of infrastructure in FDI in their respective reports.
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2.2Transport Infrastructure and FDI:
The primary benefits of transport infrastructure development are increased accessibilityand reduced transport costs, and firms can benefit from these without actually contributingdirectly to the project. Ample supply of transport infrastructure at no or low cost to users isconjectured to have a positive impact on cost and productivity of firms. Indeed, the usefulness ofprivately owned and operated cars and trucks depends on a network of roads and bridges and, forinstance, better road designs, materials, and highway maintenance can reduce the wear and tearon privately owned and operated vehicles, thus reducing transportation costs. The same is truefor aircraft, which require airports, and for private ships and barges, which require ports andnavigable waterways. A freeway is faster than a washed-out dirt road, email is faster than thepost office, and time is money. One can thus argue that transport, and public capital in general,may enhance the productivity of private inward and foreign direct capital and thus their level.
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III. CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC) ……………. 30
3.1 Pakistan China Economic Corridor ………….. 31
3.2 Strategically Importance of CPEC ……………… 35
3.3 CPEC project according to China Embassy …………………….. 39
IV. FRAMEWORK, METHODOLOGY AND CONCLUSION….………. 43
4.1 Determinants of Foreign Investment …………. 43
4.2 Theoretical Framework ……………….. 45
4.3 Data Sourcing and Methodology …………….. 46

3 China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC):

3.1Strategically Importance of CPEC:
According to the studies of FPCCI 2016 and Government of Pakistan 2014 that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides the feasible modes of resources to develop therequired infrastructure for CPEC. The corridor will connect Muslim dominated city in easternChina-Kashgar with the Gwadar port in Pakistan. The construction of this port at a strategicallyimportant town of Gwadar is in progress. The port is projected to be the centre of an energy andtrade corridor to and from China and also the Central Asian republics. Gwadar is strategicallylocated on the western end of Pakistan city Baluchistan coast on the opposite end of the Gulf ofOman, which is an important route for oil-tankers for Japan and Western countries out of Gulf.The CPEC has been termed as a part of strategic initiative of One Belt One Road by Chinesepresident Xi. It starts from a deep sea port in city Gwadar Pakistan and lead all the way to theChinese western city of Kashgar near borders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

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4 Determinant of Foreign Investment:
The heavy capital requirements for Pakistan infrastructure development to meet thepossibility of the FDI inflows in Pakistan, we look in the determinants of FDI. The sustainabilityof free trade system is closely associated with the cross border mobilization of capital, labor,entrepreneurship and utilization of land. So, free mobilization of the factors of productioncannot be restricted free trade policies implementation. The flagship institution of free trade andglobalization-World Trade Organization (WTO) treats the mobility of investment and foreignenterprises. However the treatment in the WTO agreements is too limited.
In the recent decade, the patterns and volume of the FDI flows have considerablychanged. The FDI flows to developing countries have increased due to cost of production. Thesechanges are carried by the bilateral liberalization, and regional investment agreements among theparticipant countries. All these agreements establish the links between investment and trade.
The national economic have initiated to change their policies to synchronize withglobalization. There are several examples of amendments in the rules and regulations to dealwith the flow of foreign capital and investment in the new scenario. The World InvestmentReport (UNCTAD: 2016 & 2012) stated a list of such initiative (United Nations, 2003).According to its report Australia removed its 25 percent limit on inpidual foreign investors inQantas and 35 percent cap for foreign airlines holdings. Brazil raised the limit of foreignparticipation in the capital of Banco do Brasil – a state-owned bank – from 12.5 percent to 20percent. Malaysia increased the foreign shareholding threshold from 49 percent to 70 percent forinsurance companies and investment banks, allowed full foreign ownership in the wholesalessegment of fund management, and deregulated the purchase of real estate by foreigners.
reference(brief)